I've been thinking about what would happen if this ash cloud was over North America.  At least Europe has a decent rail system and though it is really crowded right now at least there is an alternative to get around.

If this happened in the US we'd be SOL.  Travel of any distance in this country is primarily by air.  We essentially have no passenger rail system. 

Guess Greyhound would get very busy.

 geordiezimmerman wrote: 
Well... after Dr. Seth Brundle finishes perfecting the teleporter, then travel will be totally updated.

 dmax wrote: 
I gather you mean in a distant future; right now, there are not "centuries of expression and communication" exclusively recorded by electronic means.  Part of me actually welcomes a disruption to the "virtual" world anyhow.

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote: 
Ah, yes, that's better.

 dmax wrote: 
This whole concept makes me shudder.  True, and very alarming.

 callum wrote: 
Yeah but most people travel for leisure, not business so If anything, I believe air travel will increase more and more, especially short haul where the flights are ridiculously cheap.

 MrsHobieJoe wrote: 
Low prices are a Chimaera.    They really aren't doing us that much in the long run.

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote: 
I don't think that it's Luddite as much as it far-sighted. I've been thinking a bit lately about how we've developed a quick, fragile culture that won't leave a trace in 2000 years. We rely so heavily now on electricity - but it wasn't present until relatively recently. What happens if/when its availability becomes limited? Thinking very long term, it's reasonable to imagine that things could change drastically, like they have in the past.
Then, what becomes of all of this electronic based culture? Every single thing that's not written on paper or rock becomes lost. Everyone's electronic records are lost. Centuries of expression and communication don't exist any more.

Heiroglyphics are still there for us, thousands and thousands of years later, but your novel on your laptop won't be.

Here's a link to the Long Now, cofounded by Stewart Brand and Brian Eno. It's interesting. 

 rosedraws wrote: 
This one is slightly closer to the action.

But you are a bit late to the party. The good stuff was on Saturday morning GMT. We all knew that the eruption had ramped up spectacularly but it was hidden by cloud for two days. It cleared Friday night (I was asleep) but I got up in time for the early dawn when the light was brilliantly clear. Absolutely awesome display of nature's power. there are some good time lapses on you tube if you want to catch up.

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote: 
IMO air travel is on the way out.  People of my generation are far more comfortable with online meetings etc and its on the way to becoming more of a norm...

As for production lines - hopeuflly we can see our way to a less specialised small producer system. Would make for a more agile economy that can react to stress.  But as our system becomes more stressed hopefully it will settle into this new pattern without too much weeping wailing and gnashing of teeth.

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote: 
Ooooh.  Geologist-y.  

And here's the webcam.

 

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote: 
This has already majorly affected the livestock in Iceland and they're saying it's probably going to have an affect in Europe as well. 

 MrsHobieJoe wrote: 
hi! 

I hope market economies are as flexible and resilient as we think they are. Times like this make me wonder though how dependent we have become on a few key supplies to keep the whole thing going. This was really a minor event. As an eruption it is interesting but it is also the kind of thing you can expect to happen somewhere in the world two to three times every decade. What's going to happen if we got struck with a truly large eruption?

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote: 
I dunno- generally we benefit from the low prices and it is amazing how quickly we can respond to problems really.  Actually the transport  networks HAVE been adjusting to take the strain via trains and ferries etc but oh, the irony, SNCF are on a 12 day strike at the moment which kind of buggers up the whole "getting the train home" thing for anyone heading to the UK unless you can get to a Eurostar station.

EDIT- went to a meeting yesterday- the presenter had train and driven back from Prague and said the number of French number-plated vehicles at Heathrow was phenomenal.  There are very good deals for people driving from the UK to Europe in order to get the cars back to their destinations.

 geordiezimmerman wrote: 
yep. you are right, flying is a luxury that we have got so used to we've forgotten that it is one. The worse thing is how networked the system is that it actually relies heavily on such "luxuries". There is hardly any buffer left in the system when production lines come to a standstill because of a little hiccup in a volcano in Iceland. It's all this lean management, just in time delivery crap.

OK, sure, all these management philosophies are in pursuit of efficiency which reduces costs to consumers etc. but man, is it short-sighted or is it short-sighted? In the long-run this pursuit of efficiency will cost us dearly because it is making everything so heavily interdependent and fragile.

/ end of luddite rave.

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote: 
At the end of the day we have to remember that being able to fly around the world is very much still a luxury. If something like this happens then we just have to hold our hands up and admit defeat. Obviously it's a stark reminder that we are always at the elements of this beautiful planet and sometimes, although still very rarely, there's going to be major disruption every now and then.


I get the feeling that the politicans are more worried about what affect this is having on the economy rather than the plight of those stuck in foreign shores. Money again taking precedent over people's misfortune. Not exactly the actions of a caring world.

 geordiezimmerman wrote: 
it's times like this I start to lose faith in modernity. The people in New Britain in Papua New Guinea have about 50,000 years of civilization behind them and in that time they have had numerous REALLY big eruptions and life has gone on because they have been able to adapt really quickly.

Nowadays, we only have enough food to feed everybody for one season at most and if we had a truly big eruption in the northern hemisphere that would spell the end of that. On top of that, it looks like most transport infrastructure would fall apart quickly too. Ok we'd adapt too, but not before slitting each other's throats as we all starve.

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote: 
I'm not so much surprised by it, if anything i'm surprised there isn't disruption more frequently across the world, I mean Iceland is not the only place with Volcanoes.

um.. if you are really interested, go here

the upshot of it all is:

as things currently look, the ash will diminish over the next few days. The volcano has moved from ash-rich explosive activity (primarily dacite) to Hawaiian style lava fountaining (primarily basalt) which does not put anywhere near as much ash out there. Moreover, the vent is now clear of the glacier so you are not getting the same phreatomagmatic (water/magma) activity that blasts the ash up high.

Things could change, particularly if a new fissure opens up under the glacier but as things stand things will return to normal soon.

BTW nobody should be the least surprised by any of this. As eruptions go, this is an absolute baby. Frightening how fragile our modern systems have become if something as small as this causes such disruption.

 dmax wrote: 
Yeah that's right. The skies seem pretty clear, we've had some rather unseasonly good weather here recently but it's the very very fine ash that can possibly clog up engines if flown directly through it. Apparently the risk is not huge but it's enough to not want to put passengers lives at risks. There have been calls to review the situation and SOME internal flights have now begun but it's still pretty bleak for most people.
Having said that the sunsets have been amazing the last few days and the crescent moon last night was a beautiful misty shade of grey.