Feng Yujun, one of the China's leading Russianists and a professor at Peking University: Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine â The Economist
Four reasons why Russian Federation will lose to Ukraine, according to Feng Yujun:
The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary.
The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the countryâs expectations, remains broad.
The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, a contest that turns on a combination of industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems. One reason Russia has struggled in this war is that it is yet to recover from the dramatic deindustrialisation it suffered after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
The final factor is information. When it comes to decision-making, Vladimir Putin is trapped in an information cocoon, thanks to his having been in power so long. The Russian president and his national-security team lack access to accurate intelligence. The system they operate lacks an efficient mechanism for correcting errors. Their Ukrainian counterparts are more flexible and effective.
His conclusion is as follows:
Russia will be forced to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.
Russia's nuclear capability is no guarantee of success. Feng Yujun gives the example of the United States, which left Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan with no less nuclear potential than the Russian Federation has today.
Kyiv has proven that Moscow is not invincible, so a ceasefire under the "Korean" scenario is ruled out.
The war is a turning-point for Russia. It has consigned Putinâs regime to broad international isolation. He has also had to deal with difficult domestic political undercurrents, from the rebellion by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and other pockets of the military â for instance in Belgorod â to ethnic tensions in several Russian regions and the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. These show that political risk in Russia is very high. Mr Putin may recently have been re-elected, but he faces all kinds of possible black-swan events.
After the war, Ukraine will have the chance join both the EU and NATO, while Russia will lose its former Soviet republics because they see Putin's aggression there as a threat to their sovereignty and territorial integrity.
According to Feng Yujun, the war, meanwhile, has made Europe wake up to the enormous threat that Russiaâs military aggression poses to the continentâs security and the international order, bringing post-cold-war EU-Russia detente to an end. Many European countries have given up their illusions about Mr Putinâs Russia.
The Looming Ukraine Debacle There is indeed a serious risk that, rather than the West teaching Russia a lesson and putting Putin in his place, the opposite may occur.
Didn't know you were such a fan of religious zealotry Richard!
Dugin aktualisierte letzte Woche Uwarows nationalistische triadische Doktrin des russischen Imperiums von 1833 ("Orthodoxie, Autokratie und Volkstum") militaristisch und esoterisch und machte Russland zum archaischen faschistischen Erfüller eines "ewigen" Auftrags gegen Europa. pic.twitter.com/GgjwLSajwF
The Looming Ukraine Debacle There is indeed a serious risk that, rather than the West teaching Russia a lesson and putting Putin in his place, the opposite may occur. Matthew Blackburn, The National Interest
I'm guessing Campbell uses, perhaps superior, CIA data. As for the Pentagon/allies they've been in rose-coloured glasses mode from the start. Still are.
Of course he is, because that's how you inform off-the-cuff remarks at conferences.
But now now the CIA is a credible source? Good to know.
That's for the Russians to decide, not US/Euro/NATO bloviators.
Put in a good word, comrade. But avoid tall buildings with windows.
From the same article: "Campbellâs assessment seems to contradict those of the Pentagon and Americaâs allies in Europe."
So this one dude, speaking at a conference on an entirely different topic, is contradicting people who ought to knowâincluding people much closer to the situation. But he says something appealing to you, so he's credible.
Sure, sounds legit.
I'm guessing Campbell uses, perhaps superior, CIA data. As for the Pentagon/allies they've been in rose-coloured glasses mode from the start. Still are.
Lazy8 wrote:
Maybe Russia should reconstitute its political leadership instead.
That's for the Russians to decide, not US/Euro/NATO bloviators.
From the same article: "Campbellâs assessment seems to contradict those of the Pentagon and Americaâs allies in Europe."
So this one dude, speaking at a conference on an entirely different topic, is contradicting people who ought to know—including people much closer to the situation. But he says something appealing to you, so he's credible.
Sure, sounds legit.
But let's say he's right, and the Russian military has recovered from the absurdly high attrition its brute-force tactics have cost it. Then...what? The western world should stop supporting Ukraine so they're forced to submit to an imperialist conquest of their country? Or what?
That mighty military, at full strength, bogged down trying to crush an adversary many times weaker than itself. It is feeding its young men and resources into a meat grinder, gaining a few meters a day. It controls about 18% of Ukraine's land mass, down from 27% at peak occupation.
Maybe Russia should reconstitute its political leadership instead.
So Elon Muxk, capitalist running dog gadfly who constantly talks out his ass about topics he doesn't understand and is wrong about everything, is now credible?
yes! because tankie troll patrol have their marching orders
Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing According to high-ranking Ukrainian officers, the military picture is grim and Russian generals could find success wherever they decide to focus their upcoming offensive.
With a history of urging Ukraine to agree to territorial concessions â and his opposition to the $60 billion U.S. military aid package snarled on Capitol Hill amid partisan wrangling â Musk isnât Ukraineâs favorite commentator, to say the least. And his remarks received predictable pushback.
But the billionaire entrepreneurâs forecast isnât actually all that different from the dire warnings Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made in the last few days. According to Zelenskyy, unless the stalled multibillion-dollar package is approved soon, his forces will have to âgo back, retreat, step by step, in small steps.â He also warned that some major cities could be at risk of falling.
Obviously, Zelenskyyâs warnings are part of a broad diplomatic effort to free up the military aid his forces so desperately need and have been short of for months â everything from 155-millimeter artillery shells to Patriot air-defense systems and drones. But the sad truth is that even if the package is approved by the U.S. Congress, a massive resupply may not be enough to prevent a major battlefield upset. (...)
The officers said thereâs a great risk of the front lines collapsing wherever Russian generals decide to focus their offensive. Moreover, thanks to a much greater weight in numbers and the guided aerial bombs that have been smashing Ukrainian positions for weeks now, Russia will likely be able to âpenetrate the front line and to crash it in some parts,â they said. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak freely.
âThereâs nothing that can help Ukraine now because there are no serious technologies able to compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops Russia is likely to hurl at us. We donât have those technologies, and the West doesnât have them as well in sufficient numbers,â one of the top-ranking military sources told POLITICO.
Good point. High time to make Russia pay reparations for the immense damage it has caused.
Those used to come after some country lost a war. For now it just sounds like the West engaging in more piracy/theft. Another can of worms that might boomerang as well (like sanctions).
Despite the structural challenges it faces, and notwithstanding the legally questionable freezing of $300bn (or around half) of its foreign
exchange reserves, Russia is anything but short of liquidity.
Maybe John Yoo is still available to help with some legalese.
So Elon Muxk, capitalist running dog gadfly who constantly talks out his ass about topics he doesn't understand and is wrong about everything, is now credible?
So Elon Muxk, capitalist running dog gadfly who constantly talks out his ass about topics he doesn't understand and is wrong about everything, is now credible?
Good point. High time to make Russia pay reparations for the immense damage it has caused.
Also high time to actually go through with the sale/liquidation of already seized Russian oligarch assets (yachts, properties) and funnel the money immediately to the Ukraine government.
So Elon Muxk, capitalist running dog gadfly who constantly talks out his ass about topics he doesn't understand and is wrong about everything, is now credible?
