Lazy8 wrote:

yes! because tankie troll patrol have their marching orders

Russian military ‘almost completely reconstituted,’ US official says

Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing
According to high-ranking Ukrainian officers, the military picture is grim and Russian generals could find success wherever they decide to focus their upcoming offensive.

With a history of urging Ukraine to agree to territorial concessions — and his opposition to the $60 billion U.S. military aid package snarled on Capitol Hill amid partisan wrangling — Musk isn’t Ukraine’s favorite commentator, to say the least. And his remarks received predictable pushback.

But the billionaire entrepreneur’s forecast isn’t actually all that different from the dire warnings Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made in the last few days. According to Zelenskyy, unless the stalled multibillion-dollar package is approved soon, his forces will have to “go back, retreat, step by step, in small steps.” He also warned that some major cities could be at risk of falling.

Obviously, Zelenskyy’s warnings are part of a broad diplomatic effort to free up the military aid his forces so desperately need and have been short of for months — everything from 155-millimeter artillery shells to Patriot air-defense systems and drones. But the sad truth is that even if the package is approved by the U.S. Congress, a massive resupply may not be enough to prevent a major battlefield upset. (...)

And according to high-ranking Ukrainian military officers who served under General Valery Zaluzhny — the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces until he was replaced in February — the military picture is grim.

The officers said there’s a great risk of the front lines collapsing wherever Russian generals decide to focus their offensive. Moreover, thanks to a much greater weight in numbers and the guided aerial bombs that have been smashing Ukrainian positions for weeks now, Russia will likely be able to “penetrate the front line and to crash it in some parts,” they said. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak freely.

“There’s nothing that can help Ukraine now because there are no serious technologies able to compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops Russia is likely to hurl at us. We don’t have those technologies, and the West doesn’t have them as well in sufficient numbers,” one of the top-ranking military sources told POLITICO.

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
Those used to come after some country lost a war. For now it just sounds like the West engaging in more piracy/theft. Another can of worms that might boomerang as well (like sanctions).

Despite the structural challenges it faces, and notwithstanding the
legally questionable freezing of $300bn (or around half) of its foreign
exchange reserves, Russia is anything but short of liquidity.

Maybe John Yoo is still available to help with some legalese.

 Lazy8 wrote:
Poor fanboy discovers grey.

 Lazy8 wrote:
Check your mirror?

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
Also high time to actually go through with the sale/liquidation of already seized Russian oligarch assets (yachts, properties) and funnel the money immediately to the Ukraine government.

 R_P wrote:
So Elon Muxk, capitalist running dog gadfly who constantly talks out his ass about topics he doesn't understand and is wrong about everything, is now credible?

 R_P wrote:

Good point. High time to make Russia pay reparations for the immense damage it has caused.

Ukraine’s Economy Will, Ultimately, Lose It the War

 R_P wrote:

Wrong topic thread.  Belongs in MuskyMythology.

Sacks is an ignoramus and Elon needs to stay in his lane.

American oligarchs

 Lazy8 wrote:
Amazing.   You are such an 'us vesus them' kinda guy.  Before continuing.  Happy Monroe Doctrine! And Happy Ethnic Cleansing and Terrorism in the former Palestinian Mandate Lazy8!  You must be in Hog Heaven.

You are just as anti-data, anti-science and anti-expertise as rank and file MAGA Republicans.  You have no idea how anti-American your policies are.  Shame.  

Enjoy the destruction in Ukraine that your righteous proxy war is causing.   What a lost opportunity.  Too bad about the ethnic cleansing massacre in the Gaza concentration camp.  Any pretense of the high moral ground in regards to Ukraine has now been lost. 

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
That can't be all of it. A faction of American conservatives were flirting with Putin long before his weaponization of fossil fuels.

I think the appeal is cultural. They like the strongman model and they like his antipathy toward "western decadence". He hates gay people and changes to national demographics as much as they do.

I think some of that support is just edgelording, being a contrarian for its own sake. It gets you clicks and airtime on the media and it pisses off all the right people. We saw this before WW2. The culture turned on a dime after Pearl Harbor and all the earlier allegiances were conveniently forgotten, but holy crap the media and political landscape looked scary right before.

I suspect Putin is too clever to directly provoke the US,; we had essentially disarmed after WW1 but now we still have fangs. He'll bide his time, marshal his resources, and work his useful idiots. Hopefully Europe can pull its collective heads out before the tanks roll into the Baltics or Russia repeats the Ukraine exercise in Poland, as his mouthpieces in the Russian government have repeatedly promised.

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

 

 kurtster wrote:

That is an interesting perspective. I would say that Putin has actually accelerated the energy transformation in Europe and, by attacking our ideals and institutions, has done the very thing to erode his economic base (of exporting oil and gas). 

Massive investment is going on here to reduce dependence on oil & gas and tbh I am actually very surprised at the speed of the transition. If this goes on, oil and gas will be increasingly redundant in the future.

And it is not just the supply side that is changing. Consumers, especially the young urban demographic are eschewing high-energy burners in favour of more sustainable pursuits. Most of the ones I know don't want to own a car, are increasingly vegetarian and are looking for more local off-grid pursuits for their free time. The days of flying off for exotic holidays five times a year (mea culpa) or cruise ships (mea not culpa on that one) are over. 


edit:  btw I just researched domestic oil and gas production in the US. It hit an all-time high in 2023, so what particular loss of energy dominance under Biden are you talking about?

edit No. 2:  given this is the Ukraine thread, here's my take on Putin and global energy markets:

• Putin is a mafia-type mob-ruler who happens to be in control of the largest bit of real estate in the world that has a wealth of natural resources. 
• But, being a mob ruler, corruption is rife and given the size of its country, population, skills and wealth of natural resources, Russia is a massive failure in terms of local production. Very few of its products are competitive on the global market (and it knows it). Therefore Russia is reliant on exporting oil and gas for its trade balance (to pay for all those fancy imports from the US, Europe and China) and to give its population the impression it is not actually a failed state.
• Consequently, it is in Russia's interest to support fossil-fuel-reliant policies in other countries
• Russia has the means and has also demonstrated its success at destabilising other governments to prop up conservative regimes that are hostile to green technologies

To me, it is clear as day that supporting Trump and supporting the AGW lobby fits this pattern to a tee. 

It also explains a lot of the sympathy for Russia among conservatives in the US. Generally, the pro-Trump, AGW crowd don't want to change their habits and are bucking at being forced to change, which is understandable, but IMO this is fundamentally flawed as a viable business concept going forward.  Those countries/companies that come up with nifty new solutions will be the ones to succeed (could very well be China at this point). Those that stick their head in the sand will end up on the wrong side of history.

 Lazy8 wrote: 
Yeah, Drill, Baby, Drill was crippling Putin and the other bad guys.  But you're right, that was Trump and not the repubs.  Trump was playing hardball grabbing Putin by the nads doing that.  Putin and Iran were both suffering simply by our energy dominance under Trump.  Who turned that all around again ?

The true base of American power is built on reliable, cheap and the efficient use of energy.  The primary source of that energy is still "fossil" fuels which are being made illegal to use in the pursuit of the Green Agenda or what ever you are calling it these days.

The Tyranny of Expectations
Winning the Battle but Losing the War, From Ukraine to Israel

Great expectations, by contrast, can spur great disappointment. In 1967, U.S. President Lyndon Johnson began a “Progress Campaign” to show that the United States was winning in Vietnam. The administration published reams of statistics to demonstrate that the Communists were on the run, bolstering Americans’ confidence. Public support duly ticked upward. But then, in January 1968, Communist forces launched the Tet Offensive and attacked almost every major city in South Vietnam. Tactically speaking, Tet was a disaster for the Communists, as U.S. and South Vietnamese forces inflicted massive casualties. But Americans—having been told that their opponents were running out of steam—saw the offensive as a defeat. U.S. public confidence in the war declined. For the Communists, a battlefield loss became a strategic win, since it put the United States on the long path to withdrawal.